The company I work for regularly attends webinars put on by PODi, which is a sort of market research company for digital printers. They often have good stuff, but the last two presentations they put on unintentionally confirmed my belief that the print industry is headed for an even bigger shrink than most people expect.
We're already seeing the first wave as the high volume printing disappears. This is stuff like newspapers, catalogues, and phone books. The only reasons I get a phone book is because I haven't asked them to stop. I can honestly say the only time I picked one up in recent memory is when I tried to see if I could tear it in half (not yet).
Second wave will be medium run, mostly books and magazines. Although I'm not convinced the iPad will be a huge success, mobile devices more powerful than a phone, but more usable than notebooks are definitely feasible. The main barriers are screen size and battery life (magazines don't run out of power). There will probably still be a market here. People will want first editions, and books tend to have more permanence than the high volume stuff. Who wants yesterdays newspaper? (except historians) Books tend to stay on your shelf a little longer.
Finally the marketing/advertising print is already on its way out. It's becoming cheaper to buy a big screen and put your poster sized ads on there than to print them. Unaddressed ad mail has had pitiful response rates, and mass marketing is giving way to direct marketing which is better accomplished through other channels.
Print will still eke out an existence with packaging on the one end of the quality spectrum and first edition books on the other, but aside from the difficulty in making copies, and the uneditability of a printed piece, print really doesn't have much to offer that a digital device can't deliver.
We're already seeing the first wave as the high volume printing disappears. This is stuff like newspapers, catalogues, and phone books. The only reasons I get a phone book is because I haven't asked them to stop. I can honestly say the only time I picked one up in recent memory is when I tried to see if I could tear it in half (not yet).
Second wave will be medium run, mostly books and magazines. Although I'm not convinced the iPad will be a huge success, mobile devices more powerful than a phone, but more usable than notebooks are definitely feasible. The main barriers are screen size and battery life (magazines don't run out of power). There will probably still be a market here. People will want first editions, and books tend to have more permanence than the high volume stuff. Who wants yesterdays newspaper? (except historians) Books tend to stay on your shelf a little longer.
Finally the marketing/advertising print is already on its way out. It's becoming cheaper to buy a big screen and put your poster sized ads on there than to print them. Unaddressed ad mail has had pitiful response rates, and mass marketing is giving way to direct marketing which is better accomplished through other channels.
Print will still eke out an existence with packaging on the one end of the quality spectrum and first edition books on the other, but aside from the difficulty in making copies, and the uneditability of a printed piece, print really doesn't have much to offer that a digital device can't deliver.
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